U.S. economic growth is expected to “gradually” slow over the next four years under the weight of President Donald Trump’s trade policies, less consumer spending and an ebb in government buying, Congress’ nonpartisan budget scorekeeper predicted Wednesday.
In its quarterly economic outlook, the Congressional Budget Office predicted that the economy will expand 2.
3 percent this year and then grow at an average annual rate of 1.8 percent over the next decade.The federal deficit will total $960 billion this year, the budget office predicts, increasing its estimate by $63 billion compared to its May assessment. The primary cause: the $2.7 trillion two-year budget deal congressional leaders struck with the Trump administration this summer.
The forecast follows a bond inversion this month that has economists concerned the nation is headed toward an economic downturn, since such a flip has occurred before every recession since the 1950s. But the president and his economic advisers say the economy will keep humming long enough for Trump to clinch reelection in 2020.
CBO also forecast in its report that debt held by the public will grow steadily over the next decade, from 79 percent of GDP this year to 95 percent in 2029 — the highest level since just after World War II.
The budget office predicts interest rates will continue to drop, lowering borrowing costs and potentially preventing the deficit from topping $1 trillion this year.
In new survey results released this week, the National Association for Business Economics found that about three in four economists surveyed said the next recession will hit by the end of 2021.
More than one third said they predicted a recession would occur in 2020.The president accused the “Fake News Media” last week of “doing everything they can to crash the economy because they think that will be bad for me and my re-election.”
Article originally published on POLITICO Magazine