Call it the Biden Bump.
Already the frontrunner in early polls, Joe Biden is getting a significant bounce out of his campaign rollout, according to Morning Consult’s weekly tracking poll of the Democratic presidential race.
Biden, who announced his bid last Thursday and held his first rally Monday in Pittsburgh, is now the first choice of more than a third of those who plan to participate in their state’s Democratic primary or caucus, with 36 percent of Democratic voters saying they prefer the former vice president as the party’s nominee to take on President Donald Trump next year.
That is a 6-point increase from last week, when Biden led the pack with 30 percent.The poll was conducted April 22-28, surveying 15,475 voters who plan to vote in a Democratic primary or caucus. The margin of error is plus or minus 1 percentage point.
Biden’s mini-surge gives him a 14-point lead over the second-place candidate, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who is at 22 percent.
The two septuagenarians are the only candidates in double figures in the poll, though the next tier is crowded. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is third, at 9 percent, followed closely by South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 8 percent. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) is at 7 percent, and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) is at 5 percent.
Trailing the main contenders are Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) at 3 percent, and two candidates at 2 percent: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and entrepreneur Andrew Yang. Eight candidates are tied at 1 percent: Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, former Rep. John Delaney (D-Md.), former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, former HUD Secretary Julián Castro, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii).
While Biden has a sizable lead over Sanders, there are revealing cleavages among Democrats, especially along racial lines and by age.
Biden’s lead among white voters, 34 percent to 26 percent, is smaller than his overall advantage. But the former vice president has a more commanding advantage with black voters, 44 percent to 20 percent, with Harris at 10 percent. Among Hispanic voters, Biden leads Sanders by a slim margin, 30 percent to 27 percent.
Sanders is a year older than Biden, but the Vermont senator is the favorite of younger voters. He leads Biden among voters under 30, 36 percent to 23 percent.
But Biden has the support of nearly half of seniors 65 and older, with 48 percent. Sanders struggles among these older voters, with just 10 percent, a point behind Buttigieg.
Biden leads Sanders by 9 points among men, 33 percent to 24 percent. But he has an 18-point lead among women, 38 percent to 20 percent.
Since Morning Consult began tracking the Democratic race in January, Biden has been the leader each week. But the latest survey represents a new high-water mark for Biden, who has dropped as low as 29 percent.
Biden’s 6-point bounce ties Sanders’ for the largest bump Morning Consult has measured around a candidate’s announcement. Immediately after Sanders launched his campaign, he also vaulted 6 points in late February — and trailed Biden only narrowly, 29 percent to 27 percent.
Article originally published on POLITICO Magazine