NEW YORK — Amid a shaky return to school and an infection rate now north of 3 percent, New York City faces another threat to its months of success in keeping the coronavirus at bay: the return of indoor dining.
Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who has the final say on whether to open or close city restaurants, said Tuesday he’s not planning to push back this part of the city’s reopening, an effort pushed by the restaurant industry.
But by the state’s own benchmarks, the mounting number of Covid-19 cases could end indoor dining almost as soon as it opens.“We’re not there yet on closures,” Cuomo told reporters in Manhattan. “This could be held to clusters if the local governments respond.”
Indoor dining in a city defined by its restaurant culture will resume Wednesday at 25 percent capacity with temperature screenings for patrons, social distancing and mask wearing and no bar seats, among other requirements, according to state guidance.
Restaurants have been desperate for some relief since the city shut down in March. Roughly a thousand eateries have closed due to the financial strain, despite efforts by the city and state to expand outdoor dining and alleviate rent burdens. In a city dependent on tourism, the toll has had damaging ripple effects for the city’s bottom line, to say nothing of the more than 300,000 people who rely on the industry for a living.
Some 350 restaurants filed a class action lawsuit against Cuomo and Mayor Bill de Blasio over the continued closures earlier this month — seeking $2 billion in damages.
But as Covid-19 infections spike around the U.S. and the national death toll mounts, many public health experts warn indoor dining is a dangerous game.
“If you go indoors in a restaurant — whatever capacity, 25, 50 percent, or what have you — indoors absolutely increases the risk," infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci warned in a recent interview with NBC’s Andrea Mitchell. "If we want to get back to the normal existence of being able to enjoy being in a restaurant, the best way to do that is to get the community level of infection at the lowest level possible."
For months, New York City looked to be on track. That changed over the last two weeks with cluster outbreaks in Brooklyn and Queens — outbreaks that arose in neighborhoods with large Orthodox Jewish populations.
De Blasio himself said he was uneasy with Cuomo’s reopening decision and would have preferred a later start date.
“The city took a very conservative position on this matter. And I’m the person who believes we need to be conservative and cautious,” the mayor said after Cuomo announced his decision earlier this month.
But as the governor is fond of reminding people, opening restaurants is his decision under the Covid-19 state of emergency order that has been in place for much of the outbreak.
Indoor dining can only operate if the city reports a Covid-19 transmission rate below 2 percent on a seven-day rolling average, a stat that allows restaurants to stay in business even amid hot spots. New York City reported a 1.38 Covid-19 positivity rate based on a seven-day rolling average on Tuesday, but a daily rate of 3.25 percent driven by cluster sites.
The perilousness of Covid-19, and its ability to be transmitted among asymptomatic people, could lead to another wave of uncontrollable spread — rolling back all the city’s progress this summer.
“The amount of circulating disease in a community is the key predictor of outbreak likelihood,” said Lindsey Leininger, a health policy researcher and a clinical professor at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth. “Think of it as the foundational piece in playing risk reduction Jenga. If the ‘low community spread’ Jenga piece gets pulled out, the rest can come tumbling down.”
Restaurants, however, have been preparing for this scenario, said Andrew Rigie, executive director of the NYC Hospitality Alliance.
“Reopening and having to be shut down has always been a significant concern for restaurants. That's always been in the back of their minds,” he said. “A lot of these small business owners are teetering on the edge of survival.”
About 10,000 restaurants offered outdoor dining this summer, and the 25 percent indoor dining component may help them expand table service, Rigie said. Other restaurants that have held off reopening are either preparing for indoor dining at one-fourth of their capacity or are waiting until Nov. 1 — when Cuomo will evaluate the risks of indoor dining — to reopen at 50 percent capacity, Rigie said.
Restaurants that are primarily reopening for indoor dining have invested in better ventilation systems in an effort to mitigate the virus’ spread, Rigie said.
And while New York is famous for its restaurants, it’s infamous for packing people into tight spaces.
The virus thrives indoors, where poor circulation can keep aerosols in the air for hours and infect diners who are eating and drinking without masks. And while restaurants “should operate with enhanced air filtration, ventilation and purification standards,” according to the state, it is unclear to both workers and patrons how well those systems work.
“Not all restaurants are equal, not all buildings are equal, in terms of ventilation,” said Michael Gusmano, professor of health policy at Rutgers University. “It’ll take fairly serious monitoring and implementation from city and state governments to make sure this guidance is enforced.”
Unlike a health inspection grade, which is required to be posted in an easily seen spot, there is no citywide system that helps diners determine risk. City Hall declined to say if it would consider a similar inspection process for ventilation, but did note it will enforce state guidance.
“Inspections will monitor that restaurants are following state ventilation requirements and will also confirm that restaurant operators are implementing the key indoor dining practices that minimize risk of COVID-19 transmission: spacing tables 6 feet apart, reducing seating to meet the 25% maximum capacity requirement, closing bar areas, and ensuring that staff and patrons are wearing face coverings,” said city health department spokesperson Michael Lanza.
Even then, measuring ventilation efforts for the coronavirus is a tall order.
“If someone is in a corner somewhere, is that area truly ventilated?” said Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia University. “None of this is going to be measured well.”
Public health experts also fear New Yorkers become complacent as children return to school and restaurants reopen indoor dining, the former described by a de Blasio adviser as “hotbeds” for disease, and more people begin congregating inside as the weather cools.
Shaman said he worries that New Yorkers will misconstrue hard won advances as “any return to normalcy is a return to ‘everyone is fine.’”